Decision Center for a Desert City
Some people and places are at greater risk than others in the face of climate change, rapid growth, and institutional factors. DCDC examines vulnerability to water shortage in Greater Phoenix and in the upland watersheds upon which it depends for water. Researchers investigate the physical, social, and institutional factors that put people and their communities at risk, how aware they are of relevant risk, and what actions are most effective in mitigating risk.
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DCDC uses a complex integrative model to anticipate the effects of climate conditions, rapid growth, and policy decisions on future water supply and demand conditions in Phoenix. The model, dubbed WaterSim, is shown in the Decision Theater where regional water managers and other decision makers can experiment with and discuss the model, and where DCDC social scientists can investigate the water decision making process. WaterSim also is available online, along with a body supporting information to help users understand what they are seeing.
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DCDC is engaged in water education at a variety of levels, ranging from K-12 to graduate education. Activities include water education workshops for water providers and teachers and the development of new classroom materials such as learning modules, an online atlas, and WaterSim on the Web. DCDC offers research experiences and internships for undergraduates and seminar classes in decision making under uncertainty for graduate students.
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DCDC seeks a more complete understanding of the local and regional climate conditions that influence Phoenix's water supply and demand. Studies include efforts to improve drought prediction, downscale general circulation models to the watersheds upon which Phoenix depends for its water, estimate the uncertainty in runoff associated with climate change models, represent the urban heat island and predict its characteristics with future growth, and evaluate the effects of the urban heat island on water use.
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DCDC studies the factors influencing water demand and how different policies, attitudes, and behaviors might mitigate the increasing demand for water in Phoenix. Projects include small-area water demand forecasting, analyses of the future effects of water conservation policies on residential water use, studies of the values and objectives of water stakeholders, and studies of the way environmental values structure people's water use and conservation attitudes.
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DCDC operates at the boundary of science and policy and investigates ways to more easily cross that boundary. Researchers interact on a regular basis with the regional water community and consider their views in the development of WaterSim and project management. In addition, several researchers are studying how decision makers view and engage with scientific products and how the social networks of scientists and policy makers evolve with participation in DCDC.
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